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Inside the early vote numbers: Iowa

99 counties and early voting in each

In many ways, President Obama’s road to the White House began in Iowa with his historic victory in its first-in-the-nation caucus. Tomorrow, the President and the First Lady will hold their last rally before Election Day in the Hawkeye State.

But the President’s connection to Iowa is much more than just sentimental—its six electoral votes are a key piece of the puzzle and will help re-elect him to a second term. That’s why we never stopped organizing in Iowa after that January 2008 caucus win. And since early vote started on September 27th, supporters have been voting in each of Iowa’s 99 counties.

Nearly 20,000 students early voted at their schools during our two-week Campus Takeover push. Randy Lyon of Dubuque has personally collected more than 1,600 vote-by-mail request—all by himself. Last week, President Obama called him to say thanks.

The nonstop hard work of our campus organizers and Iowans like Randy is paying off. Here is an abundance of hard evidence to prove President Obama is winning early vote:

  • According to the this weekend’s Des Moines Register poll, 42% of likely voters have already voted, and Obama leads Romney by 22 points among them.

  • This means Romney would need to win the remaining Election Day voters by 16 points in order to win Iowa—and the same poll shows that’s not going to happen.

  • 265,133 Iowa Democrats have voted already, compared with just 202,174 Republicans. That’s an 18% increase in the number of Iowa Democrats casting ballots compared with this point four years ago.

  • Democrats lead Republicans by 62,664 in ballots cast—about the same margin as four years ago, when Barack Obama won Iowa by 9.5%.

  • Democrats are doing a better job of getting non-midterm voters to the polls: 76,675 non-midterm Democrats have voted already in Iowa, compared with just 40,467 non-midterm Republicans.

  • There have been five public polls of Iowans who have voted early, showing Obama leading among early voters by between 15 and 29 points.

  • Because registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by just 10 points among early voters, this means that President Obama is winning Iowa independents who have voted by at least 20 points.

  • Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Iowans who registered to vote in the last three months are women, young people, African Americans or Latinos—all groups that overwhelmingly support the President—and they comprise nearly the same proportion (66%) of early voters so far.

Iowa has always come through for President Obama—from his first primary caucus to his last general election ever. On Tuesday, Iowa will come through again, and early vote is a major reason why we’ll win.

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